Joe Rogan has sparked a fresh debate about the state of US rap after claiming the genre has 'fallen off the charts' following the defunding of the US Agency for International Development (USAID). His comments have drawn attention not only because of their controversial explanation, but also because they come amid a noticeable shift in the genre's position in the US mainstream music landscape.
While Rogan's explanation lacks established evidence, his broader observation touches on a genuine shift in American music. Rap's grip on the upper reaches of the Billboard Hot 100 has weakened dramatically, with the genre even disappearing from the chart's Top 40 for the first time in more than 35 years in 2025. The development has raised questions over whether hip-hop is experiencing a temporary slump or entering a new era in which its dominance of the mainstream charts is no longer guaranteed.
Rap Really Has Lost Ground On The Charts
The most striking part of the story is that rap's decline in mainstream chart dominance is real, even if Rogan's explanation is not.
In October 2025, Billboard reported that there were no rap songs in the Hot 100's Top 40 for the first time since February 1990. The change came after Kendrick Lamar and SZA's 'Luther' — which had spent 13 weeks at No. 1 — was removed from the chart.
That moment ended a remarkable 35-year run in which at least one rap track had occupied the Top 40.
But it would be misleading to suggest rap suddenly disappeared from American music. Several rap songs remained just outside the Top 40, while the genre continued to perform strongly across its dedicated Billboard charts.
The bigger story is rap's declining dominance, not its disappearance.
The 'Luther' Exit Was A Major Turning Point
Kendrick Lamar and SZA's 'Luther' is particularly important to understanding what happened. The track was one of the biggest songs in America, reaching No. 1 on the Hot 100 and staying there for 13 consecutive weeks. It ultimately spent 46 weeks on the chart. When it fell off the Hot 100, there was no other rap song immediately strong enough to fill its place in the Top 40.
Billboard's chart rules also played a role. Changes to how older songs are treated meant established tracks could be removed more quickly once they no longer met certain performance thresholds. That reshaped the chart at precisely the moment rap was already struggling to maintain its previous dominance. This matters because the historic absence was not simply proof that Americans had stopped listening to hip-hop.
Why Has US Rap Lost Its Dominance?
No single explanation accounts for rap's weaker position.
Changing listening habits, competition from pop and country, fewer enormous rap crossover hits and a quieter period from some of the genre's biggest names have all contributed to the changing landscape.
A recent report noted a 12.2 per cent decline in R&B and hip-hop listening in 2025, while industry figures have pointed to changing audience tastes and a lack of major releases as possible reasons for the genre's commercial slowdown.
That does not mean hip-hop has become irrelevant.
In fact, rap continues to influence pop and country, with elements of its production, rhythms and vocal styles increasingly absorbed into other genres. Its cultural influence can be considerably larger than its position on one particular chart suggests.
Where Rogan's USAID Claim Falls Short
Against that backdrop, Rogan argued that the decline was connected to USAID being defunded. During The Joe Rogan Experience, he claimed the agency had funded 'radical anti-government rappers overseas' and suggested its programmes were linked to regime change.
No evidence shows that USAID's funding decisions caused the decline in US rap's commercial performance.
A documented case involves US-backed activity and Cuban rapper Aldo Rodriguez, but that does not show USAID was responsible for the wider success of American hip-hop or that ending its programmes caused rap's chart decline.
In other words, Rogan has attached a questionable explanation to a trend that does have some basis in the data.
Rap Is Down — But Far From Out
The idea that rap has simply 'fallen off' also overlooks the genre's continuing commercial power. Kendrick Lamar and SZA's success with 'Luther' demonstrated how quickly rap can return to the centre of the mainstream conversation, while the continued output of artists such as Drake, Cardi B and other major hip-hop acts shows that the audience has not vanished.
Even Billboard's historic Top 40 anomaly was partly the result of one enormous rap hit leaving the chart rather than an overnight collapse in interest.
The more compelling question is whether US rap is experiencing a temporary commercial slump or entering a genuine new era. For now, the charts suggest its decades-long dominance has weakened. But declaring hip-hop dead may be just as premature as blaming USAID for its changing fortunes.
